The epidemic and employment… Covid has somehow become a fact of life. With the mutation of the virus in natural selection, it is expected that new variants will emerge from time to time. The spreading and contagion effect of this also has an important place. We have more experience and vaccines that protect against the virus, so a reflection like the first effects of the pandemic is not expected. In terms of employment trends, the epidemic may cause variability in sectors, especially in services and transportation, which can still be directly affected. Covid cases can still have an impact on investment and employment decisions.
Working trends… The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed new data on how US businesses have changed their operations since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Topics covered include remote work, workplace flexibilities, wage changes, COVID-19 workplace requirements, establishment space size, relocation, workforce reinforcement, automation, and COVID-19 loans or grants. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, 14.5% of organizations (20.5% of all private sector employment) have increased their base wages. 5.5% of businesses offered temporary pay or hourly bonuses (471,000, 15.7% of all private sector employment). Special one-time bonuses for working during the pandemic were paid by 9.4% of organizations (809,000, 23.7% of all private sector employment).
Online work and Covid-19 vaccines… As a result of the pandemic, 34.5% of organizations have increased online work for some or all of their employees. 60.2% of US business organizations that increased online work during the pandemic expect the increases to be permanent when the epidemic is over. As a result of the pandemic, 24.6% of organizations (33.9% of all private sector employment) started offering flexible or incremental working hours to their employees. In 17.5% of organizations, some or all employees were required to receive a COVID-19 vaccine prior to coming to work. A greater proportion of organizations, 28%, offered financial incentives or paid leave to some or all employees.
Pandemic benefits… Pandemic social benefits had an important place in the context of protecting the spending ability and economic situation during the period of intense layoffs. When the economic situation of households deteriorates and they cannot spend, the risk of general recession increases as companies cannot find people to sell goods and services. The recession felt during the pandemic took place for a short time. The bottom-up response of the economy is in the realization phase in a way that eliminates risks. Of course, this still has its downsides. If economic progress is achieved, the need for social benefits decreases, and withdrawn incentives make returning to work much more attractive in this environment. Instead of temporary income, regular and sustainable income will be preferred at this stage. As a result, the ability to make autonomous consumption at the same time as the economy exits the recession period depends on the state of disposable income. It is important that an organic recovery progresses as confirmed by employment.
Conclusion? In terms of working models, we observe that there is a bit of a wait in the return to office plans of large companies due to the increase in Covid cases and variant risks. At the same time, working from home, remote working and hybrid working will be more embedded in business life from now on. Revealing that this increases the working efficiency and at the same time, it provides the opportunity for companies to avoid certain items, especially office costs, will ensure that such working models become permanent to a certain extent.
We think that it will be a reference for technological progress in terms of digital service usage and automation. Going back to old habits doesn't seem so easy anymore. The new model and innovation element will be in a position to determine employment trends and the trend in labor supply.
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