Turkey: Strong economic growth performance expected

In the 3Q21 period, we saw that leading indicators, especially industrial production and exports, confirm strong economic activity in the post-opening period.

In the 3Q21 period, we saw that leading indicators, especially industrial production and exports, confirm strong economic activity in the post-opening period. In this context, we expect the real GDP performance, which has exceeded its pre-pandemic peak, to grow by 5.3% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In 2Q21, the economic growth performance was realized as 21.7% with the contribution of the base effect from last year's conjugate period. We have a growth expectation of 9.7% for the general period of 2021, when the stagnation effect caused by the pandemic is passed quickly.

 

The Turkish economy has made a rapid recovery from the global recession caused by the pandemic. Industrial production, exports and private consumption impact were the main drivers of growth in 3Q21. As the picture drawn by the strong leading indicators in the economy, both the demand and production outlook were quite active in the said period. The positive contribution of the activities and business lines related to the opening to the periodical recovery has increased, especially with the contribution of services and tourism to become evident. While the tight policy ground and financial conditions were maintained with the effect of high inflation throughout the period; On the other hand, there was no significant slowdown in demand. In this context, macro-prudential measures that will affect the credit mechanism have been introduced in order to activate the investment channel by limiting consumption activities. The weighting trend on the side of commercial loans has been tried to be supported by rate cuts in the last period. Financial conditions, which are desired to be eased in 4Q21 growth, increased inflation and price uncertainty and the effects of commercial activity will be the factors that will be the subject of growth.

 

In the 3Q21 period, government expenditures stemming from pandemic support will contribute less, primarily because unemployment supports have been withdrawn or reduced. In terms of the credit mechanism, we care about the macroeconomic stability factor for the investment environment as much as the interest rates. For this reason, we would like to point out the future risks of exchange rate volatility and price stability factors in terms of the growth outlook. In the case of Covid, it may be necessary to include the possible effects of the latest Omicron variant in the scenario analysis in terms of 1Q22 and beyond. The slowdown effects of disruptions in the global supply chain and insufficiencies in the supply of intermediate goods in terms of production trends are also evaluated. Therefore, the 4Q21 growth momentum may periodically lag behind the previous quarters.

 

In this context, although we still set our expectation for 2021 GDP growth to be 9.7%, our expectation for 2022 GDP growth of 4.1% includes downside risks.

Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı