According to the leading December foreign trade data announced by the Ministry of Commerce within the scope of GTS (general trade system); Compared to the same month of the previous year, exports increased by 24.9% to 22.27 billion USD, while imports increased by 29.2% to 28.91 billion USD in the same period. In this context, the foreign trade deficit increased by 45.9% in December and became 6.64 billion USD.
While Germany was the country to which we exported the most in December, it was followed by the US, England and Iraq. In import items; China took the first place in December 2021, followed by Russia, Germany and the US. When we look at the goods groups, there is a double-digit increase in exports of raw materials (intermediate goods), investment (capital) and consumer goods compared to the previous year. On the import side, despite the 41.1% increase in the raw material category; investment goods increased by 11.7%, while consumption goods decreased by 20.5%.
While the strong upward trend in exports continues, it is observed that the highest seasonal export amount of all time has been recorded. On the import side, the price effect originating from energy imports continues as we expected. Although unit-based imports are at similar levels within the framework of the recent increase in energy prices, the invoice effect of this is effective in the increase in the foreign trade deficit. It is observed that energy imports amounted to 7 billion USD on a monthly basis, which indicates an increase of 152.8% compared to the same period of the previous year. With the increase in raw material prices, iron and steel imports increased by 84.7%, while plastics and products increased by 42.2%. On the other hand, consumption-based imports are slowing down. In the previous period, positive domestic demand and the effect of energy and raw materials increased imports bilaterally. These price factors cause imports to increase on a price basis, although the increase in gold imports last year was eliminated this year.
Foreign demand, together with the partial slowdown effect created by Covid variants and supply shortages, may cause a certain slowdown in momentum on the export side. The recovery effect in Turkey's trading partners will still be decisive in terms of export trends. In terms of current account balance next year, we think that the axis of foreign demand in exports, increasing energy costs and trends in domestic consumption in imports should be taken into account.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı